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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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